Expert: Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Has Only Just Begun, but There Won’t Be a 10x Surge

• Ki Young Ju expects bitcoin to rise 3–5x within the current cycle.
• In his view, a larger share of institutional investors reduces the amplitude of both the asset’s upside and downside moves.
• The analyst pointed to an inflow of new capital, old whales halting their selling, and futures whales building large long positions.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that the current Bitcoin bull cycle is only just beginning. At the same time, he expects less extreme upside for the leading cryptocurrency compared with previous cycles — around 3–5x instead of a parabolic 10x-plus rally.

According to the head of CryptoQuant, in the past, “hot money” and retail investor dominance fueled explosive bitcoin rallies, after which the price could drop by 80%.

Now the situation has changed due to the market’s larger capitalization and the growing share of institutional holders. In Ki Young Ju’s view, these factors both cap the upside and soften potential drawdowns.

He expects the current cycle to deliver a 3–5x rise in bitcoin, after which a milder bear market could begin.

Onchain metrics point to a shift in market structure

Ki Young Ju drew attention to the PnL index, which tracks the aggregate profitability of bitcoin holders. According to him, the indicator shows less extreme cycle peaks and the formation of lows at higher profitability levels.

In the current cycle, MVRV has never fallen below 1. This means that even at local bottoms, the bitcoin price remained above the average onchain cost basis of holders’ assets. At the same time, some investors could still be at a loss, but overall holders were not “underwater,” the expert added.

Among other signals, Ki Young Ju cited growth in realized capitalization, which he believes indicates an inflow of new capital. He also noted that “old” bitcoin whales have stopped selling, while futures whales have built large long positions near the bottom.

He separately noted that the 365-day moving average of the PnL index, which typically lags market turning points, is now forming a meaningful reversal point.

Less upside — lower downside risk

Ki Young Ju emphasized that his forecast does not imply any specific upper limit for the bitcoin price. Rather, it points to a shift in the risk-to-reward balance.

In his view, moving away from 10x-plus parabolic growth also means a lower likelihood of an 80% drawdown. This, as the CryptoQuant CEO noted, could make bitcoin more attractive to long-term capital, rather than speculative “hot money.”

He also suggested that bitcoin’s gradual maturation could bring it closer to Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision — an asset stable enough to be used as money.

“Bitcoin’s bull rally has only just begun, but nobody cares,” stressed Ki Young Ju.

As a reminder, earlier Canadian business “shark” Kevin O’Leary named the main threat to bitcoin on its path to $1 million.

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