Grayscale: Without the 10 Best Days, Bitcoin’s Three-Year Return Would Have Fallen to 27%

• Over the past three years, bitcoin has delivered roughly 225% returns, while the Nasdaq has gained 109%.
• If you exclude the asset’s 10 best trading days, its return drops to 27%.
• Without the 15 best days, bitcoin would have posted an 11% loss.

Over the past three years, bitcoin has delivered roughly 225% returns, while the Nasdaq index has risen by 109%. At the same time, a significant share of the gains from investing in bitcoin came from a small number of the strongest trading days. This is noted in a Grayscale analysis.

Analysts noted that excluding bitcoin’s five best trading days over the past three years reduces its cumulative return from 225% to 95%. If you remove the 10 best days, the figure falls to 27%, and without the 15 strongest trading sessions, bitcoin already shows an 11% loss.

By comparison, the Nasdaq’s returns were less dependent on individual trading days. Excluding the 15 best sessions reduced its three-year result from 109% to just 21%.

Grayscale emphasized that bitcoin’s strongest moves are difficult to predict. By their estimates, less than 0.5% of trading days over the analyzed period generated enough upside that excluding them would cut the asset’s total return by more than half.

“Sitting out” periods of high volatility can also come with significant opportunity costs. Investors trying to wait for a more favorable entry point risk missing sharp upside moves.

Puell multiple points to a shift in the market phase

An additional signal about the market’s current state was provided by analytics platform CryptoQuant.

According to its data, the 7-day moving average of the Puell multiple reached an 11-month high and, for the first time in about 10 months, rose above the 1 mark. 

Since November 2025, the metric has remained below 1, which has historically corresponded to periods of bitcoin accumulation and the formation of a market bottom. Now, the indicator is moving out of that zone. 

CryptoQuant expects the next target for the Puell Multiple could be the 2 level. According to analysts, this points to a potential transition into a new phase of the market cycle.

“Historically, every time this indicator traded below 1 (the discount zone), it signaled periods of bitcoin accumulation associated with the formation of a market bottom. As the Puell Multiple breaks above 1, exiting the accumulation zone, the start of a trend reversal is expected, with an initial target of 2. The bitcoin price has room for further upside as it attempts to break through key resistance levels,” the experts said.

As a reminder, earlier Willy Woo said that bitcoin has never underperformed stocks over a four-year investment horizon.

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