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AUDUSD Falls Below 200-Day Moving Average for First Time Since November 2025
The AUDUSD currency pair has experienced a significant decline this week, primarily driven by increased demand for the US dollar. This shift follows a more hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy, alongside rising Treasury yields. As a result, the market-implied probability of an interest rate hike in October has surged to approximately 66%. Higher yields in the US enhance the dollar's appeal compared to other currencies, exerting downward pressure on pairs like AUDUSD.
On Wednesday, the AUDUSD broke below its 100-day moving average, signaling a bearish trend. The 200-day moving average, currently situated around 0.70217, became a focal point for sellers. The pair briefly dipped below this level during the Asia-Pacific trading session, prompting a temporary recovery that faltered before reaching the 0.70515 midpoint of its recent rise. By the end of the day, AUDUSD closed below the 200-day moving average, marking a notable shift in market sentiment.
In early trading today, the AUDUSD fell to 0.7005, its lowest point since August 4. However, a broader sell-off of the US dollar and improved risk sentiment allowed the pair to rebound above the 200-day moving average, reaching 0.7036. Traders are now faced with a critical decision point at this average, which has not been breached in nearly 11 months. Maintaining a position above this average is crucial for buyers, while a drop below it could reignite selling pressure and target lower levels around 0.6962 to 0.6978.
Source: KLEA News