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Bitcoin Remains Stable Amid Weak US Jobs Data and High Treasury Yields
Bitcoin has maintained a trading range between $83,000 and $87,400 since late September, despite facing high Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.342% on October 1, marking its highest level since April 2002. This stability in Bitcoin's price comes as the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October has significantly decreased following disappointing employment data. The September jobs report revealed that payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, 2026, its first increase since July 2023. Initially, there was a 70% to 75% chance of another hike in October, but this dropped to approximately 22.7% after the weak jobs report. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index also came in lower than anticipated at 3.4% year-on-year, contributing to the shift in rate hike expectations.
While the easing of immediate rate hike pressures has benefited Bitcoin, the persistent high long-term yields present a challenge. Investors are weighing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, a non-yielding asset, against the returns from Treasury bonds. The demand for Bitcoin has been supported by significant inflows into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which totaled $6.34 billion in the third quarter of 2026. However, the market remains cautious as traders await upcoming economic indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 14 and the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates later in the month.
Source: KLEA News