Solana (SOL) Needs 107% Rally by December to Hit Standard Chartered’s $250 Target

TLDR

• Solana must surge 107% in fewer than three months to reach Standard Chartered’s $250 year-end projection.
• The token currently trades around $121, roughly unchanged from February when the target was announced.
• September brought a 40% increase in Solana ETF net inflows, totaling $271 million.
• Network validators voted to double the disinflation rate on September 26, reducing new token issuance speed.
• Solana decentralized applications generated over $100 million in fees for the second consecutive week, matching August 2025 levels.

Solana (SOL) continues to hover near $121 as of October 5, 2026, creating a substantial distance from the $250 price target established by Standard Chartered. The forecast came from analyst Geoff Kendrick in February, yet the cryptocurrency has shown minimal progress toward that level in the months since.

Reaching $250 before the year ends would require a 107% price appreciation in less than 90 days. Such a move would expand Solana’s market capitalization from approximately $71 billion to nearly $147 billion.

The banking giant revised its 2026 outlook downward in February, reducing the projection from $310 to $250. Simultaneously, Kendrick increased his extended-term expectations, unveiling a $2,000 price target for 2030.

Standard Chartered’s Model Points to Stablecoin Activity

Kendrick’s projections rely on evaluating Solana’s network valuation relative to its underlying economic throughput. He highlighted a transition in decentralized exchange volume toward SOL and stablecoin trading pairs as a significant factor.

The analyst also anticipates automated AI systems will leverage Solana for micropayments, capitalizing on the blockchain’s minimal transaction costs. Nevertheless, he suggested Solana might underperform relative to Ethereum during 2026 and 2027 until payment transaction volume increases sufficiently to drive price appreciation.

Over the past 30 days, Solana has climbed approximately 18%. Even with this recent upward movement, the token trades 59% beneath its all-time peak of $293, recorded in January 2025.

The circulating supply of Solana presently totals 588 million tokens. Without a maximum supply cap, the network continuously mints new coins for staking rewards, introducing additional supply that must be absorbed by market participants during price rallies.

Validators approved a measure on September 26 to double the network’s disinflation rate. This adjustment decelerates the introduction of new tokens into circulation, though it doesn’t independently generate additional buying demand.

Market analyst Sweep, posting as @0xSweep, observed that Solana appears to be replicating a pattern from the previous month. He characterized the token’s movement as cycling through expansion followed by accumulation phases, noting SOL currently sits in accumulation territory. Sweep suggested a decline below $110 could occur before the next upward phase initiates.

ETF Inflows and On-Chain Activity Show Gains

Solana-linked ETF net inflows climbed 40% during September, advancing to $271 million from August’s $194 million. Current trading volume for SOL registers at $2.3 billion, representing roughly 3.2% of the token’s circulating market capitalization.

Active daily addresses on Solana’s blockchain have demonstrated consistent growth. Santiment data reveals a bullish crossover between the 30-day and 50-day moving averages for this indicator.

Fees generated by Solana-based decentralized applications, including Pump.fun, exceeded $100 million for the second straight week. This marks the first time fees sustained this threshold since August 2025.

From a technical perspective, SOL encounters resistance near the $120 mark. The Relative Strength Index presently stands at 64.

Should the price breach $125, market participants are monitoring potential movement toward $150. A retracement into the $110–$115 range remains under consideration among traders if buying momentum proves insufficient to overcome current resistance levels.