AllianceDAO Co-founder: Factoring in "Boom" and "Doom" Probabilities, Anthropic's Target Valuation Should Be Halved

PANews, October 15 – AllianceDAO co-founder QwQiao took to X to discuss Anthropic's IPO valuation in a tongue-in-cheek manner. He reminded investors not to forget to factor in both the "boom" and "doom" probabilities when calculating Anthropic's expected value.

His logic goes like this: if AI leads humanity to infinite abundance, money will no longer matter; if AI wipes out all of humanity, money likewise loses its meaning. He set the combined probability of these two scenarios at 50%. The remaining 50% is the "boring middle" – humans keep working, and keep working forever. The sad part is that it is precisely only in this scenario that money still matters.

Therefore, QwQiao quipped that all of Anthropic's target prices must be cut in half.