Black Friday and Crypto: Do Retail Spending Trends Affect…

KEY TAKEAWAYS

1. Black Friday 2025 online spending reached a record $11.8 billion in the United States, according to Adobe Analytics, marking a 9.1% increase from 2024.
2. Bitcoin traded near $91,000 on Black Friday 2025 after falling about 17% from its early November price above $110,000, showing price moves tied to macro factors over retail spending.
3. BitPay reported 12% growth in payment volume in 2025, with an average transaction value of about $800 and stablecoins accounting for 40% of payment volume.
4. A PayPal survey found 17% of Americans would rather receive cryptocurrency than gift cards during the 2025 holiday season, signaling growing consumer interest.
5. Crypto adoption continued to expand in 2025, yet crypto prices remained driven by monetary policy and regulation.

 Online shoppers in the United States spent a record $11.8 billion on Black Friday 2025, according to Adobe Analytics. That figure topped the previous year's $10.8 billion milestone by a wide margin. At the same time, Bitcoin hovered near $91,000 after falling about 17% from its early November peak above $110,000.The disconnect between surging retail activity and declining crypto prices raises a fundamental question for digital asset investors.This article examines three years of Black Friday data alongside Bitcoin's price action to determine whether a meaningful link exists between holiday retail spending and cryptocurrency valuations.

Three Years of Black Friday Spending and Bitcoin Price Data

Black Friday online sales in the United States have climbed steadily from $9.8 billion in 2023 to $10.8 billion in 2024, then to $11.8 billion in 2025, as reported by Adobe Analytics. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projected total 2025 holiday season spending would surpass $1 trillion for the first time, reaching between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. These figures confirm that consumer confidence and disposable income have continued to flow into traditional retail channels during the holiday period.Bitcoin's trajectory around those same dates tells a different story entirely. The asset traded at roughly $37,720 on Black Friday 2023 amid pre-ETF anticipation. By Black Friday 2024, it had surged to about $97,000 after reaching an all-time high near $99,600 on November 22, though it had dipped 5.8% earlier that week.On Black Friday 2025, Bitcoin settled near $91,000 after shedding gains from an early-month high above $110,000. Each year's price action reflected macro catalysts, not retail spending volumes.Vivek Pandya, Lead Analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, noted that crossing the $10 billion threshold in 2024 represented a major e-commerce milestone for a day historically anchored to in-store shopping. His observation underscores that retail spending growth is a consumer behavior trend with its own drivers, largely disconnected from cryptocurrency market mechanics.A Coinmonks analysis comparing holiday retail data with crypto market performance across multiple years concluded that Bitcoin shows no direct correlation with retail spending figures.Unlike equities, which can respond to consumer sentiment indicators, Bitcoin's price is shaped by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, regulatory developments, and institutional capital flows. The convergence of crypto and traditional finance has not extended to retail seasonal patterns.

How Crypto Payments Are Gaining Ground in Retail Commerce

While Bitcoin's price may not respond to Black Friday sales volumes, the use of cryptocurrency as a payment method during holiday shopping is expanding measurably. BitPay, which serves merchants globally, reported 12% growth in payment volume in 2025, with an average transaction value of approximately $800. Stablecoins accounted for 40% of payment volume.The global crypto payment gateway market reached an estimated $2 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $4.74 billion by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate of 18.7%, according to CoinLaw research.Consumer attitudes toward crypto gifting also accelerated during the 2025 holiday season. A PayPal survey released in November 2025 found that 17% of Americans would prefer receiving cryptocurrency over traditional gift cards. Among existing crypto holders, 65% said they had given, planned to give, or were considering crypto as a gift.Visa's holiday survey, released in December 2025 after being conducted in October, reported that 45% of Generation Z consumers would welcome cryptocurrency as a holiday present.These numbers suggest that crypto is embedding itself into the retail economy at the transaction level, even though price correlation with seasonal spending remains absent. The distinction matters for investors who track adoption metrics: growing payment usage strengthens the utility case for stablecoins and major cryptocurrencies without necessarily moving their prices in step with holiday receipts.

What Actually Moves Bitcoin During the Holiday Season

The data from 2023 through 2025 point consistently to macro and institutional factors as the primary drivers of Bitcoin's price during the holiday period. In November 2023, Bitcoin rose 8.8% through the month on anticipation of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). By November 2024, it hit an all-time high near $99,600 on November 22 after the presidential election. The 2025 holiday season saw Bitcoin retreat from $110,000 to $91,000 amid broader market recalibration.Samson Mow, Chief Executive Officer of JAN3, characterized the Bitcoin dip during Thanksgiving week in 2024 as a buying opportunity, referring to it publicly on social media as a sale event for Bitcoin.His framing illustrates how crypto market participants interpret holiday-period price drops through a supply and demand lens rather than linking them to consumer spending patterns. The crypto regulation landscape and monetary policy environment matter far more to price discovery.An investment comparison from Benzinga illustrates the divergence between retail spending and crypto returns. An American who invested the average 2023 Black Friday spend of $567 into Bitcoin at its November 24 price of $37,720 would have held $1,441.79 by Black Friday 2024. That represents a 154% return, more than double the average 2024 holiday budget of $650. The comparison reveals that Bitcoin's performance is a function of its own market cycle, not the health of holiday retail. Its expanding user base creates more overlap between retail shoppers and crypto holders, but it has not produced a statistical relationship between spending volumes and asset prices. The two trends coexist without causation, and investors should evaluate crypto market conditions on their own terms rather than using retail data as a proxy signal.

What's Next?

The 2026 holiday season will test whether the crypto payments trend accelerates further. The stablecoin market continues to expand under frameworks like the GENIUS Act, and major payment processors are integrating blockchain rails into checkout flows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price trajectory will likely be shaped by Federal Reserve rate decisions, the outcome of SEC rulemaking on broker-dealer crypto activities, and institutional inflows rather than whether consumers spend more or less on holiday deals.

FAQs

Does Black Friday spending affect Bitcoin prices directly? No, Bitcoin prices during Black Friday periods from 2023 through 2025 moved on macro catalysts like ETF approvals and elections, not retail volumes.How much did Americans spend online on Black Friday 2025? Adobe Analytics reported that United States online shoppers spent a record $11.8 billion on Black Friday 2025, representing a 9.1% increase from the 2024 figure.What was Bitcoin's price on Black Friday 2024? Bitcoin traded at about $97,000 on Black Friday 2024 after reaching an all-time high near $99,600 on November 22.How many crypto transactions did BitPay process in 2025? BitPay reported a 12% increase in payment volume in 2025, with an average transaction value of approximately $800 and stablecoins accounting for 40% of payment volume.Do consumers want cryptocurrency as a holiday gift? A November 2025 PayPal survey found 17% of Americans preferred receiving cryptocurrency over gift cards. Separately, Visa's holiday survey reported that 45% of Generation Z consumers would welcome cryptocurrency as a holiday present.Is the crypto payment market growing? The global crypto payment gateway market was valued at approximately $2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $4.74 billion by 2030, growing annually.

References

1. Adobe Analytics, "Black Friday 2025 Sets Record $11.8 Billion in U.S. Online Sales," Nasdaq, 2025
2. PayPal Newsroom, "Crypto Rivals Gift Cards," November 2025
3. BitPay 2025 Transaction Data, BitPay, 2025
4. CoinLaw, "Crypto Payment Gateway Statistics 2025," 2025