BTC Market Pulse: Week 40

Spot Indicators

Price Momentum. Increased 14.8% to 70.4, indicating a significant surge in buying pressure. Price Momentum shows a notable increase, with the RSI climbing to 70.4. This places the metric above its high band, signifying robust upward price action and strong buyer dominance. Such elevated readings often suggest an overbought condition.

Spot CVD. Decreased 86.5% to $17.3M, reflecting a sharp reduction in aggressive buying pressure. Spot CVD experienced a substantial decline, moving back inside its statistical range. This indicates a significant weakening of aggressive buying sentiment compared to the prior week. While still positive at about $17M, the sharp reduction in cumulative taker buy volume suggests a decrease in directional conviction among market participants, potentially signaling a shift in short-term momentum.

Spot Volume. Decreased 1.1% to $6.6B, indicating a slight dip in overall market activity. Spot Volume saw a marginal reduction, remaining within its typical statistical range. This modest decline suggests a slight cooling in overall market activity, yet trading interest remains relatively stable. The current volume indicates that recent price action is not being driven by an exceptional influx or withdrawal of investor participation, implying a period of consolidation.

Futures Indicators

Futures Open Interest. Increased by 2.1% to $38.9B, indicating a slight rise in outstanding futures contracts. Futures Open Interest shows a sustained increase, with the nominal value of active contracts remaining elevated above its high band. This suggests continued speculative appetite and increased market participation, pointing to potentially elevated leverage within the system.

Long-Side Funding Payment. Decreased by 53.2% to $1.2M, reflecting a significant reduction in long-side funding premiums. Long-Side Funding Payment has seen a substantial decline, with premiums for long exposure falling back inside its range. This significant reduction suggests a fading conviction among long-position holders, potentially indicating increasing demand for short exposure or a shift towards more neutral sentiment.

Perpetual CVD. Decreased by 137.1% to -$261.5M, reflecting a sharp reversal from buy-side to sell-side aggression. Perpetual CVD has experienced a dramatic shift, moving into negative territory and falling below its low band. This indicates a significant and sustained dominance of sell-side pressure from aggressive takers, reflecting a pronounced bearish sentiment and potential distribution behavior in the perpetual futures market.

Options Indicators

Options Open Interest. Increased by 4.1% to $44.4B USD. Options Open Interest increased, reflecting growing market participation and increased use of options for speculation or hedging. The current value of about $44B is notably above its high band, indicating a substantial expansion in outstanding contracts.

Volatility Spread. Increased by 49.6% to -10.7%. Volatility Spread increased substantially, indicating options are pricing in more future risk relative to realized volatility. This move from deeply negative values suggests a lessening of market complacency. The spread, at -10.7%, is back inside its range, implying modest expectations for increased price swings.

Options 25-Delta Skew. Decreased by 15.0% to 2.39%. Options 25-Delta Skew decreased, signaling a moderation in demand for downside protection. This reflects a slight easing of bearish or hedging sentiment. The positive skew remains within its historical range, implying that while puts are still favored, the directional bias has become less pronounced.

ETF Indicators

US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly). Increased 367.95% to $2.7B from $575.3M seven days prior. US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly) demonstrates a significant surge in capital inflows, reflecting heightened demand from traditional finance participants. The current weekly netflow of nearly $2.7 billion is well above its high band, indicating exceptionally strong institutional accumulation and bullish sentiment.

US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly). Decreased 17.83% to $14.9B from $18.1B seven days prior. US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly) experienced a noticeable reduction, indicating a decrease in overall investor activity and potentially a period of consolidation. While still substantial, the volume remains within its historical range, suggesting a normalization of TradFi engagement following previous heightened interest.

US Spot ETF MVRV. Decreased 3.6% to 1.49 from 1.54 seven days prior. US Spot ETF MVRV indicates a slight reduction in average unrealized gains for ETF investors. The metric remains near its high band, suggesting that TradFi positions are still significantly profitable.

Fundamental Indicators

Total Fee Volume. Increased by 5.0% to $239.7K. Total Fee Volume experienced a modest rise, indicating a slight uptick in demand for block space and transactional activity. While showing an increase, the metric remains within its established statistical range, suggesting that overall network congestion and user willingness to pay for inclusion are stable.

Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume. Increased by 22.0% to $6.9B. Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume surged notably, indicating a substantial increase in capital movement and investor activity. The current value is significantly above its high band, implying a period of heightened economic throughput on the network, potentially driven by large-scale reallocations or speculative interest.

Daily Active Address Count. Increased by 0.5% to 640.1K addresses. Daily Active Address Count saw a modest uptick, signaling a slight increase in network participation and user engagement. The metric remains well within its established statistical range, suggesting a stable, albeit not rapidly expanding, level of transactional demand.

Capital Flows Indicators

Realized Cap Change (Monthly). Increased 0.6% to 1.1%, reflecting continued net capital inflows into the network. Realized Cap Change (Monthly) sustained its upward trajectory, with the current 1.1% reading significantly above its high band. This robust positive movement indicates substantial net capital inflow into Bitcoin, characteristic of strong accumulation phases and broader bull market conditions, reflecting sustained demand at higher price levels.

STH to LTH Supply Ratio. Increased 1.4% to 13.5%, signaling a modest rise in short-term holder influence. STH to LTH Supply Ratio edged higher, with the current 13.5% reading in the upper part of its range. This indicates a growing, albeit moderate, presence of newer, more reactive market participants. Such a trend is typically associated with elevated trading activity and an increase in speculative churn within the Bitcoin market.

Hot Capital Share. Increased 3.9% to 18.8%, indicating a rise in recent capital allocation. Hot Capital Share saw an expansion, with the latest value of 18.8% now positioned above its high band. This suggests a notable influx of short-term, price-sensitive capital into the Bitcoin market, often observed during periods of rapid price appreciation or heightened speculative activity. This shift points to an increasing volatility sensitivity.

Profit/Loss States Indicators

Percent Supply in Profit. Increased by 6.8% to 74.0%, up from 69.3% a week earlier. Percent Supply in Profit indicates a greater proportion of the circulating supply is now held in an unrealized profit state. The metric's current position, above its high band, suggests broadening profitability across the investor base, potentially indicating an increasing incentive for gain realization.

Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio. Increased by 43.4% to 14.2%, up from 9.9% seven days prior. Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio indicates a substantial expansion in the network's aggregate unrealized profit. The current reading, well above its high band, suggests a state of elevated profit margins and potentially increasing market euphoria.

Realized Profit to Loss Ratio. Increased by 79.6% to 1.4, up from 0.8 recorded seven days ago. Realized Profit to Loss Ratio's substantial rise reflects a significant increase in realized profits relative to realized losses on-chain. The value, currently well above its high band, strongly suggests a market environment dominated by profit-taking activities, indicative of robust bullish sentiment.