CryptoQuant founder: Bitcoin expected to gain 3–5x this cycle; signals of market overheating should focus more on on-chain behavior

PANews reported on October 3 that, according to analysis by Ki Young Ju, founder of blockchain data analytics platform CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin bull market has begun and is currently in the early stage of a new cycle. Ki Young Ju noted that the market has undergone significant structural changes, with traditional financial channels such as ETFs becoming the main source of liquidity in this cycle. As long-term holders stopped selling and new capital continued to flow in, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the key annual level of $83,000 in late September.

Ki Young Ju analyzed that due to the expansion of market size and increased institutional participation, volatility in this cycle will be somewhat reduced, and Bitcoin is expected to achieve a 3–5x gain rather than the previous explosive growth of over 10x. He emphasized that signals for judging market overheating should focus more on on-chain behavior, such as whales depositing to exchanges and retail investors entering the market, rather than price levels alone. In addition, although the market remains divided over the four-year cycle theory, from the perspective of miners' production costs and the halving mechanism, this cycle logic still holds reference value in the current market.