Huatai Securities: Fed unlikely to hike rates consecutively in October; under baseline scenario, another hike in December

PANews reported on October 3, citing Jin10, that Huatai Securities noted the September nonfarm payrolls report came in below expectations, reducing the urgency for the Fed to hike rates consecutively in the near term. Because single-month nonfarm payrolls data is highly volatile, looking at the three-month average, new nonfarm payrolls came in at 51,000, near the equilibrium employment level; combined with the unemployment rate still at a relatively low level, this shows the labor market remains solid but hardly tight. The weaker September nonfarm payrolls, together with slowing wage growth, meant real income growth moderated in September, and consumer spending may also struggle to sustain August's strong performance. Looking ahead, the forward-looking NFIB hiring intentions indicator suggests October nonfarm payrolls may remain weak, though payrolls could rebound thereafter. Therefore, Huatai Securities believes the Fed is unlikely to hike rates consecutively in October, and under the baseline scenario, it will hike again in December.