Prediction Market Bets on OpenAI's Valuation Decline Ahead of Potential IPO

Traders on Polymarket have placed between $119,000 and $132,000 on the prediction that OpenAI's initial public offering (IPO) will close with a market capitalization between $500 billion and $750 billion. This represents a significant decrease from the company's current private valuation of $852 billion. However, the market assigns only a 4-6% probability to this outcome, indicating skepticism about the likelihood of such a valuation.

The most favored outcome among traders is that OpenAI will not go public at all, with a probability of 62-67% for this scenario. This suggests that approximately two-thirds of participants believe the company will remain private before the deadline for the prediction market closes. Earlier market sentiment had estimated an 18% chance of OpenAI's valuation dropping to $750 billion by year-end, but this has since diminished to low single digits in the context of an IPO.

OpenAI's valuation has seen significant fluctuations, having raised $122 billion in March 2026, which valued the company at $852 billion post-money. Recent secondary market valuations have even reached around $894 billion. CEO Sam Altman has indicated a preference to delay any IPO until the company can secure a valuation exceeding $1 trillion, which could push the potential IPO into 2027. This cautious approach reflects broader uncertainties in the public market for large tech listings, particularly in a risk-averse environment.

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Source: KLEA News