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      Citi Predicts December Rate Hike Following Higher US Inflation

      Citigroup has revised its forecast, now expecting the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 25 basis points in December, following a stronger-than-anticipated consumer inflation report for September. Previously, Citi had projected no further rate changes for the year. The adjustment aligns with market expectations, which had already factored in a December hike, with current pricing indicating a 94% probability of such a move.

      The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September revealed a year-over-year increase to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August and surpassing the expected 3.6%. Monthly inflation rose by 0.6%, primarily driven by rising gasoline prices. More concerning for policymakers was the core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy costs, climbing to 2.6% from 2.4%, also above the anticipated 2.5%. This suggests that inflationary pressures are broadening beyond energy sectors, raising concerns about persistent inflation.

      Following the CPI release, market reactions were swift. The implied probability of a rate hike during the Fed's upcoming meeting on October 27-28 surged to approximately 47%, up from 22%, before settling around 32%. This shift indicates that the October meeting will be a significant decision point rather than a mere formality, as traders now closely monitor Fed communications leading up to the meeting and upcoming inflation data, including the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures.

      © 2026 KLEA News. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

      Source: KLEA News

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