Morgan Stanley Sets $300 Target on SpaceX (SPCX) Amid Valuation Compression

Key Highlights

• SpaceX shares climbed nearly 16% across Friday and Monday sessions, finishing at $171.09.
• Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas maintains a Buy rating with a $300 price objective.
• The equity now trades at approximately 106 times projected 2027 earnings, a sharp decline from 1,000 times in June.
• Consensus forecasts show 2027 EPS at $1.70, expanding to $21.05 by 2031.
• The upcoming Starship test mission and third-quarter financial results are identified as near-term drivers.

Shares of SpaceX finished Monday’s session at $171.09, marking their strongest close since mid-June. The stock advanced nearly 8% during Monday trading and posted a combined gain of almost 16% over the Friday-to-Monday period.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The rally followed a positive research report from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who reiterated his Buy recommendation and established a $300 price objective on the shares.

Jonas’s target suggests potential appreciation of approximately 75% from Monday’s close. In his research note, he argued that the stock continues to become “cheaper and cheaper” despite rising in dollar terms.

The rationale centers on valuation multiples. SpaceX equity currently trades at roughly 106 times projected 2027 earnings. While that may appear elevated, it represents a dramatic compression from levels seen earlier in 2025.

Shortly after the company’s June initial public offering, shares traded at approximately 1,000 times forecasted 2027 earnings. By July, that multiple had compressed to around 200 times. It has since been halved once more.

Earnings Forecasts Drive Multiple Compression

Analyst profit projections have risen substantially. Immediately following the public debut, Wall Street expected minimal profitability from SpaceX.

Current consensus estimates anticipate 2027 earnings per share of approximately $1.70. Those projections extend to $21.05 per share by 2031.

This trajectory implies an earnings compound annual growth rate approaching 90%. When the price-to-earnings multiple is divided by this growth rate, SpaceX’s PEG ratio calculates to approximately 1.2.

By comparison, the broader S&P 500 index trades at a PEG ratio near two. A lower PEG ratio typically indicates a stock is more attractively valued relative to its growth prospects.

Jonas is not alone in his optimism. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has assigned an $800 price target, which would value SpaceX at roughly $11 trillion in market capitalization.

Catalysts Behind Recent Momentum

In his research commentary, Jonas identified several upcoming potential catalysts, including artificial intelligence product launches, Starship development milestones, and additional neocloud computing agreements.

He specifically highlighted the next Starship test mission as a critical near-term event. Successfully capturing the upper stage would represent the most significant positive development since the company went public, according to his analysis.

Earlier test missions concluded with the upper stage landing in the ocean rather than being retrieved. The company’s third-quarter financial release, anticipated in late October, was also noted as a potential market-moving event.

SpaceX has maintained an active launch schedule recently. The company executed multiple missions within a 24-hour period, including transporting a NASA crew to the International Space Station.

One launch deployed Google artificial intelligence processors into orbit. SpaceX has also begun generating AI-related revenue following its acquisition of Elon Musk’s xAI venture and subsequently Cursor.

The aerospace firm now leases computational infrastructure to clients including Google and Anthropic. SpaceX completed its initial public offering on June 12 at a price of $135 per share.

The stock reached a record closing price of $201.80 on June 16 before declining more than 30% ahead of the first post-IPO lockup expiration. Shares bottomed in early August and have since rebounded approximately 58%.

In Tuesday’s premarket session, SpaceX stock was quoted at $173.36, representing a 1.3% increase. Including premarket activity, the shares have appreciated 17% over the past three trading days.

Forbes’ real-time wealth tracking estimates Musk’s net worth at $1.03 trillion following Monday’s market gains, incorporating his ownership positions in both Tesla and SpaceX. SpaceX did not provide a response to inquiries for this report.