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New Zealand Business Confidence Declines Amid Rising Oil Prices
New Zealand's business confidence has decreased in September, as indicated by ANZ's monthly Business Outlook survey. Confidence fell by approximately 2 points to +52, while expected own activity remained stable at +48. However, reported past activity saw a significant decline, dropping 5 points to +11. The survey reflects a mixed picture of recovery, with many firms reporting stronger activity compared to the previous year, despite the recent volatility in oil prices.
Inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.25%, while cost expectations increased slightly, with 82% of firms anticipating higher costs. Pricing intentions eased, with 48% of firms expecting to raise prices. The timing of survey responses was crucial, as a notable portion was collected after a spike in oil prices, which rose from around $100 per barrel to a peak of $128 before settling around $108. Late-month responses indicated a decline in activity indicators, particularly in the own activity outlook, which fell to +36 from +52 in earlier responses.
Sector performance varied, with manufacturing showing the strongest confidence at +79, while retail and services reported weaker employment and activity measures. Construction activity intentions continued to improve, and pricing intentions in this sector reached their highest levels recorded in the survey. ANZ noted that while the recovery remains uneven, the impact of rising oil prices on confidence is evident, and how businesses adapt to this uncertainty will influence economic conditions as 2026 progresses.
Source: KLEA News