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US Core PCE Inflation Slows to 3.0% in July, Easing Rate Hike Pressure
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the United States rose by 3.0% year-over-year in July, falling short of the expected 3.3%. This marks a decrease from the previous month's rate of 3.3%. The headline PCE inflation also showed a decline, coming in at 3.4% compared to the anticipated 3.7%. Month-over-month, the headline PCE increased by 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4%.
In terms of consumer spending and income for August, personal income rose by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4%, while personal spending increased by 0.9%, surpassing the forecast of 0.8%. Real personal spending showed a notable improvement compared to the previous month, which recorded no growth.
These figures provide a significant relief for the Federal Reserve, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike in October. The odds of a rate increase have dropped to 34%, down from 64% earlier in the week. Following the report, the US dollar weakened across the board, and Treasury yields fell by 4 to 5 basis points, leading to increased bids in stocks and gold. The PCE report is a key indicator of inflation, measuring changes in the prices of goods and services consumed in the United States, and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve in its assessment of economic conditions.
Source: KLEA News