Study Reveals 69% of Polymarket Retail Accounts Experience Losses

A recent study by Galaxy Research has revealed that 69.2% of retail accounts on Polymarket, an international prediction market, have finished below break-even. The analysis, which examined 2.9 million human-paced accounts, found that these accounts collectively incurred losses totaling $338.9 million since the platform's launch in 2020.

The report, published on October 1, 2026, indicates that the median loss for these retail accounts was approximately $3. While the majority of accounts experienced minor losses, the top 1% of losers faced significant setbacks, with losses reaching as high as $4,804. In contrast, the top 1% of gainers made profits of up to $3,381. The study also highlighted that after experiencing a loss, 15.2% of traders ceased trading altogether, compared to only 6.1% who stopped after a win, indicating a higher churn rate following losses.

Galaxy Research's analysis excluded automated accounts, which netted a profit of $246.8 million, focusing solely on human traders. The findings suggest that traders specializing in sports had the lowest win rate at 25.1%, while those concentrating on technology and science fared better with a win rate of 41.2%. The study also noted that profitable traders tended to have larger median positions, averaging $13.96, compared to $10 for those who did not achieve profits.

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Source: KLEA News