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      Traders Anticipate Drop in US Diesel Prices Following Executive Order

      Traders on the Kalshi prediction market are betting that the national average retail price of diesel in the United States will fall to $6.20 per gallon or lower by Election Day, November 3, 2026. This speculation follows an executive order signed by former President Donald Trump on October 5, 2026, which temporarily allows tax-exempt dyed diesel to be used on highways, aiming to provide relief to truckers, farmers, and consumers facing rising fuel costs.

      The executive order defers federal excise taxes on dyed diesel for the remainder of the year, potentially saving users over $100 per refill. This is particularly significant for long-haul trucking and agricultural operations that rely heavily on diesel fuel. The price of US retail on-highway diesel had recently peaked at approximately $6.53 per gallon in September 2026, driven by international supply disruptions due to conflicts in Iran and attacks on Russian refineries.

      Traders on Kalshi have focused on short-term forecasts, indicating a belief that the policy change will lead to lower prices within weeks. However, there is also a notable concern among traders, with an estimated 11-17% probability of a complete export ban on diesel products by late October or Election Day, which could signal further government intervention in fuel markets. While the tax deferral may provide immediate relief, it does not address the underlying supply issues that have contributed to the recent price spike.

      © 2026 KLEA News. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

      Source: KLEA News

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