SpaceX Stock Rises as Morgan Stanley Backs $300 Target

The SpaceX stock target at Morgan Stanley is $300 per share, and analyst Adam Jonas reiterated it with an Overweight rating in a note on Sunday. The SpaceX stock price closed at $171.09 on October 5, up 7.63%, which means the SpaceX $300 price target points to about 75% upside from there. Morgan Stanley’s SpaceX call also landed right around the time Elon Musk confirmed SpaceX TSMC talks over the Terafab chip project.

SpaceX Stock Target, $300 Forecast and TSMC Talks Explained

At the time of writing, the SpaceX stock price sits at $172.21 in overnight trading, after a session that ran from $158.62 up to $172.47. Around 134.4 million shares changed hands, a good deal above the 91.3 million average. The SpaceX stock target of $300 is also well above the $227.44 consensus one-year estimate and the $225.64 52-week high.

Why Morgan Stanley Keeps Its SpaceX Stock Target At $300

Jonas titled the note “SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper.” At $159, he put the shares at about 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, against roughly 16 times for mega-cap AI enablers. Adjust for growth, though, and that number drops to about 0.3 times, or around 40% below the peer median.

Adam Jonas said:

“We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap.”

The bank values the Space and Connectivity units at $127 per share, which leaves about $32 per share for AI at $159. That gap is pretty much the whole Morgan Stanley SpaceX argument, and the SpaceX $300 price target only works if the AI side delivers.

SpaceX TSMC Talks Bring A New Chip Angle

Musk confirmed on X on October 3 that Terafab, the chip venture backed by SpaceX and Tesla, is in early discussions with TSMC. The plant would make chips for SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI.

Elon Musk had this to say:

“Just discussions, but something may come of it.”

There is no contract, no timeline, and no dollar figure yet, and TSMC has not commented. Right now, the SpaceX TSMC talks look more like an extra bonus than something the SpaceX stock target really depends on.

Starship Flight 15 Is The Next Big Test

Jonas stated:

“We believe future AI product releases, Starship progress, and additional neocloud contracts showing continued pricing around $30-50/watt are all upside-skewed catalysts that can push the stock closer to our $300/share price target.”

A few events are coming up, such as Starship Flight 15 in late October or early November, and Jonas said a successful ship catch could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO. Third-quarter earnings are due around November 3. Any of these can move the SpaceX stock target debate one way or the other.

Trailing EPS still sits at -$1.10, so the SpaceX $300 price target rests on profits that are a few years out. TD Cowen’s John Blackledge started coverage last week with a Buy rating and a $200 target, which sets a lower bar in the SpaceX stock target discussion. For anyone following the Morgan Stanley SpaceX thesis, Starship and the AI deals now have to arrive on schedule, as the SpaceX stock price can swing hard on any test flight result.