XRP Outflows Spike Above 320M, Echoing August Rally Setup

Data from CryptoQuant shows that daily XRP outflows from exchange transactions of 1 million tokens or more have spiked above 320 million.

What makes this information particularly noteworthy, as mentioned by analyst Xaif Crypto, is that the last jump of that size, which came in August, saw the price of XRP climb more than 42%.

Binance Leads the Withdrawals

Binance led the move, Xaif Crypto noted, with Coinbase, Upbit, Bybit and Bitget, which recently suffered a $387 million breach, also showing heavy outflows.

“Last time we saw a spike like this (Aug), XRP ripped from $1.05 to $1.50,” the trader pointed out.

Analyst Amr Taha tracked the Binance side. The exchange’s XRP reserve rose from about 2.60 billion to 2.70 billion tokens between September 13 and 27, then fell to 2.647 billion by September 30. That is roughly 57 million XRP, or 2.1%, gone in three days, more than half of the earlier build-up. A lasting decline could leave fewer tokens available for spot trading and ease selling pressure, stated Taha.

CryptoOnChain, another CryptoQuant author, focused on leverage, which they say has “reduced faster than price has fallen.” They reported that Binance XRP open interest, the value of open futures positions, fell to $521.5 million on September 29, down 15.3% from a six-month high of $616.1 million a week earlier.

Meanwhile, long liquidations, which are forced closures of bets on a higher price, averaged $3.72 million a day from September 24 to 29, about 2.6 times the six-month daily average. Funding rates also halved from 0.010 to 0.005, while leverage remains above its six-month mean of 0.169. One explanation CryptoOnChain floated for this is that traders trimmed their leveraged longs before the quarter-end instead of selling spot.

“This creates conditions that historically preceded range-bound trading, since positioning is resetting while exchange supply edges higher,” the analyst explained.

Looking at the Ripple token in the market, it was trading close to $1.50 at the time of writing, having gained approximately 1% on a 24-hour basis and also showing little movement on a weekly basis. The fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has rallied 16% in the last 14 days, but it is still underperforming on an annual basis, having dipped by more than 47% in the past 12 months.

October Brings a Mixed Record

As CryptoPotato reported earlier, XRP closed September with a third straight green month, adding around 8% to its value. In that time, spot XRP exchange-traded funds added over $121 million, lifting cumulative net inflows to nearly $1.8 billion, and they have not logged a red week since early July.

However, as we move into October, it has historically been a harder month for the token. Only five of the last 13 Octobers have finished green for XRP, with the last one being a 16.5% gain in 2023, which was followed by a 16.7% loss in 2024 and a nearly 12% drop last year after the infamous October 10 sell-off.