Anthropic Hits $16.8 Billion but IPO Buzz Starts to Cool

Anthropic told prospective investors at a pre-IPO meeting in San Francisco on October 14 that third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, up 45% from $11.6 billion in the second quarter, Reuters reported, citing an investor who attended the event. The Claude developer also disclosed that it was profitable on an adjusted basis during the quarter, marking a financial milestone as the company prepares for a highly anticipated public listing.

Revenue Growth Slows After a Breakout First Half

The 45% sequential increase represents a sharp deceleration from the first half of 2026. Revenue more than doubled between the first and second quarters, jumping from $4.7 billion to $11.6 billion. First-quarter revenue itself was already a significant leap from Anthropic's full-year 2025 total of nearly $4.6 billion, CNBC reported, with a secondary report putting first-quarter revenue at approximately $4.7 billion. At the current quarterly pace, Anthropic is generating revenue at an annualized rate of roughly $67.2 billion.Some backers reportedly expect Anthropic to reach annualized revenue of $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of 2026. Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei and Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao both met investors at the October 14 event, Reuters confirmed.

Some Investors Discuss $1.5 Trillion Instead of $2 Trillion

The revenue figures prompted some current and prospective investors to reassess the company's expected IPO valuation. People familiar with the discussions told Reuters that some investors discussed a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion for the planned November share sale, down from the roughly $2 trillion that had previously been expected.The $1.5 trillion figure represents investor discussions rather than a formal price set by Anthropic or its underwriters. Some investors expressed disappointment with the slowing sequential growth rate, noting that revenue more than doubled in Q2 but rose only 45% in Q3, according to Reuters. Even at $1.5 trillion, Anthropic would sit below the $1.77 trillion valuation SpaceX reached at its June listing, BeInCrypto noted.

Massive Infrastructure Commitments Add Context

Anthropic has committed at least $518 billion over a decade to cloud, computing and infrastructure agreements with six partners including Google, Amazon and Microsoft, according to a confidential IPO prospectus reviewed by Reuters. About 80% of those commitments are non-cancellable or payable regardless of usage.The company's 2025 operating loss exceeded $8 billion, while compute and infrastructure spending reached $7.33 billion, roughly triple the prior year. That spending trajectory underscores the capital intensity of building frontier artificial intelligence models at scale.

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Concerns Could Weigh on OpenAI and AI Stocks

A weaker-than-expected Anthropic IPO could weigh on rival OpenAI's listing, which Reuters has reported is expected next year. The broader artificial intelligence sector has faced selling pressure in October, with SpaceX shares trading at $160.57 on October 8, about 29% below their $225.64 peak.

Anthropic IPO Timing and Final Valuation Hinge on Growth and Investor Demand

The listing, already pushed from October to November, could slip past the US midterm elections, according to some reports. Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in its May 2026 Series H round, and the final IPO pricing will depend on realized revenue growth, adjusted margins and investor appetite for frontier AI companies at current multiples.