Bitcoin’s Most Important Indicator Just Flashed Green: Can BTC Hold Above $85,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed bullish momentum after reclaiming a key long-term market indicator, with BTC holding above $85,000 after breaking through a major seller wall.

Notably, the crypto asset climbed to $87,096 on October 2, its highest level since September 23, before pulling back slightly. The move marked a 15.6% recovery from its September 15 low of $75,170 and pushed BTC above a resistance zone that had capped its gains for much of the week.

Now, analysts are watching whether the latest momentum can hold. In a Saturday tweet, CryptoQuant highlighted one of the most important developments in Bitcoin’s on-chain data, saying its MVRV Z-Score has moved above its 365-day average.

The analytics platform said the move has historically represented an important change in Bitcoin’s market momentum.

“Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score just broke ABOVE its 365-day average. Historically, reclaiming this moving average has been an important shift in market momentum. Now the key is whether Bitcoin can stay above it,” it stated.

For context, MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with the realized value of coins on the network. A sustained move above the long-term average can indicate improving market conditions.

CryptoQuant’s data also showed that Bitcoin’s 1-to-3-month holders are sitting on their largest unrealized profits since May 2025.

The cohort currently has an average unrealized profit margin of 24%, suggesting that recent buyers have gained substantial exposure to the rally.

Elsewhere, James Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington Altus, also sees a broader improvement in Bitcoin’s technical structure.

Thorne said Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing a strong setup after the recent correction held around the rising 200-week moving average.

“Bitcoin’s weekly chart is one of the best-looking setups in the market,” Thorne wrote.

He noted that Bitcoin’s 30-week and 40-week exponential moving averages have turned upward since the June low, with price reclaiming both measures. According to the strategist, this represents an intermediate trend shift from bearish to bullish while the longer-term uptrend remains intact.

Thorne also pointed to improving weekly momentum and changing market fundamentals. He argued that regulated stablecoins, tokenized Treasuries and on-chain settlement are helping move Bitcoin and digital assets beyond a purely speculative market.

“Yes, a Super Cycle,” Thorne added.

Moreover, the bullish signals arrive as Bitcoin clears an important technical obstacle. Glassnode recently identified a significant concentration of sell orders between $85,000 and $85,500 on Binance’s spot market. That supply zone had restricted Bitcoin’s advance for roughly a week.

Buyers eventually absorbed the resistance on October 2, allowing BTC to push toward $87,000. After the breakout, sell orders above the market declined, and some existing orders were canceled.

The next major resistance sits around $87,400, according to QCP, which identified the level as September’s high. Above that, $90,000 becomes an important psychological and options-market target. On the downside, QCP sees $82,500 as a key support area.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $85,990, up 0.86% in the past 24 hours.