VanEck Forecasts $3 Million per Bitcoin by 2050 and Calls It a Hedge Against Dollar Devaluation

Published: October 5, 2026 – 12:36 UTC

VanEck believes bitcoin could rise to $3 million by 2050, provided the asset sees widespread use in global trade.
As a medium-term target, the firm points to a price of around $500,000 per 1 BTC — which would equal half of gold’s market capitalization.
VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, views bitcoin as a long-term hedge against dollar debasement.

VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, said the firm evaluates investments with a 10-year macroeconomic horizon in mind. In his view, the fundamental case for bitcoin as protection against dollar debasement remains intact.

He also noted growing interest in the cryptocurrency among younger generations and sovereign states. According to Sigel, this points to further — albeit volatile — adoption of the first cryptocurrency.

At the same time, VanEck took a more cautious view of the asset’s short-term outlook. Earlier this year, the firm dropped its $180,000 target, which it had previously considered for bitcoin.

Miners gained access to a scarce AI resource

Separately, Sigel drew attention to bitcoin miners. In his view, a key advantage for them is access to grid-connected power and ready-made energy infrastructure.

Due to the surge in demand from the artificial intelligence sector, miners’ long-term power contracts have become significantly more valuable.

According to Sigel, some mining companies have signed 10–20-year deals with investment-grade counterparties. This reduces their dependence on bitcoin’s price and creates an opportunity to repurpose capacity for AI needs.

At the same time, if the first cryptocurrency rises significantly, miners may shift some capacity back to mining the asset. Sigel called this “undervalued optionality,” and noted that across VanEck’s active strategies, aggregate exposure to bitcoin is now at an all-time high.

Bitcoin and gold

VanEck views bitcoin and gold as assets that partially serve similar functions in a portfolio, but carry different levels of risk.

According to Sigel, bitcoin is roughly three times more volatile than gold. That is why institutional investors often take a smaller position in bitcoin to achieve a comparable level of risk.

Within VanEck’s assets under management, about 2% is allocated to digital assets and bitcoin-related instruments, while about 13% is allocated to gold and gold-mining companies.

Siegel also pointed to the difference between assets in terms of mobility. Gold requires physical transport across borders, while bitcoin can be transferred almost instantly.

According to Siegel, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell to 16–17 over the summer, which is close to multi-year lows. Previously, this metric reached around 40. In his view, bitcoin could theoretically double relative to gold, which supports a positive outlook for the asset over the next year.

Siegel also noted that bitcoin’s short-term relationship with the DXY dollar index remains unstable. However, over the long term, he said, bitcoin and gold tend to trade against the dollar.

Quantum computing remains a risk

Siegel called quantum computing one of the real long-term risks for bitcoin. At the same time, he emphasized that this issue affects not only cryptocurrency, but virtually all modern software.

In his view, bitcoin has an advantage thanks to its conservative approach to protocol changes. However, the lack of centralized leadership also makes it harder to roll out a potential upgrade quickly.

Siegel noted that ecosystem developers have already begun working more actively on the quantum threat. He expects the issue will need to be addressed over the next few years. At the same time, he said quantum computing is not currently a reason to sell bitcoin.

A $500,000 and $3 million forecast

Siegel clarified that he personally did not forecast bitcoin at $1 million within the next five years. Instead, he cited VanEck’s medium-term target as a level equivalent to 50% of gold’s market capitalization. By his estimate, that corresponds to roughly $500,000 per bitcoin.

That level could be reached either in the current market cycle or in the next one.

Over a longer horizon, VanEck’s model suggests bitcoin could rise to $3 million by 2050. For that to happen, the cryptocurrency would need to capture a significant share of global trade, including energy markets.

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Source: Incrypted