Most Blockchains Will Disappear: An Expert Highlighted Key Metrics for Network Survival

• Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal believes most blockchains will not survive competition, and that the core value will concentrate in a handful of networks.
• In his view, Ethereum, Solana, and Sui are among the few L1s that have maintained economic activity during the market downturn.
• Among the key indicators of a network’s long-term potential, Pal highlights capital retention, stablecoin growth, and an influx of developers.

Global Macro Investor and Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal said that most blockchains are destined to disappear, and that only networks with real demand, resilient economics, and strong network effects will be able to preserve long-term value.

In his analysis, he compared the crypto industry to the internet company market in the early 2000s, stressing that investors should evaluate not short-term token price action, but blockchains’ ability to attract and retain users, capital, and developers.

Most Blockchains Will Not Survive Competition

Pal noted that, according to CoinGecko estimates, more than 13 million tokens had stopped trading by the end of 2025. In his view, a significant share of blockchains also lacks sufficient competitive advantages for long-term survival.

He compared this process to the dot-com crash, when excessive investment in internet infrastructure and businesses without sustainable models led to a broad market collapse. At the same time, the biggest technology companies later grew on top of that very infrastructure.

According to Pal, blockchains are going through a similar phase: most projects will disappear, but a select few networks could become the foundation of a global tokenized economy.

Who Will Survive?

Pal highlighted four categories of projects that have a chance to preserve long-term value:

• general-purpose L1 blockchains. Ethereum, Solana, and Sui, in Pal’s view, have the potential to become the foundation of a global tokenized economy thanks to throughput, application composability, and a mature developer community
• specialized networks. He cited Hyperliquid as an example — a blockchain built around exchange activity. Such projects can be strong within their niches, but their upside is constrained by the scale of their specialization
• L2 networks. They run on top of base blockchains and leverage their security. Pal believes some L2s can become successful businesses, but they will not necessarily accrue value in the same way as base networks

In Pal’s view, projects that have neither a broad economy, nor a clear specialization, nor any other durable competitive advantage risk losing demand once the market cycle ends.

Why Tokens Can Lose Most of Their Value

Separately, Pal drew attention to the token launch model with low initial supply and a high fully diluted valuation (FDV).

According to him, such assets can surge sharply in a bull market, when limited supply meets high demand. However, during a downturn, upcoming token unlocks create additional downward pressure on the price.

For blockchains without a durable competitive advantage, the situation is even more difficult: initial attention to a project does not necessarily translate into sustained network usage.

Pal believes investors should focus on real technology adoption, rather than speculative token appreciation.

Capital Velocity Can Be a Warning Sign

Pal said he studied 12 blockchains, comparing their metrics at the market peak in January 2025 with subsequent performance over 13 months.

According to him, traditional metrics — fee revenue, total value locked (TVL), and the TVL-to-FDV ratio — did not reliably predict which networks would retain their value.

Instead, the best indicator turned out to be capital velocity. Pal argues that the networks with the highest velocity later showed the worst performance, while blockchains where capital stayed put longer delivered better results.

He explained this by the difference between speculative activity and a sustainable economy: capital that constantly churns may not leave behind long-term value, while funds deployed into lending, staking, and other interconnected applications build a stronger ecosystem.

Three Metrics of a Blockchain’s Long-Term Potential

In addition, Pal named three signals he looks at when evaluating networks:

• resilience of economic activity per user. It matters whether the volume of capital and activity is maintained among users who remain on the network during a market downturn
• growth in stablecoin supply. If the amount of dollar-denominated assets on a blockchain grows even as its token price falls, it may indicate sustained demand for the ecosystem itself
• developer inflows. Pal considers this metric particularly important because developers invest time and specialized expertise into a network, and their choice can therefore signal confidence in its long-term prospects.

According to Pal, among the L1s he analyzed, only Ethereum, Solana, and Sui maintained economic density during the market downturn. At the same time, he sits on the board of the Sui Foundation, which is worth keeping in mind when evaluating his conclusions about this network.

Winners May Capture Most of the Market

Pal also believes that competition among blockchains will gradually drive down transaction costs. In such an environment, the advantage will go to networks that can attract significant volumes of users and capital, while also ensuring efficient application performance.

He also highlighted the potential role of AI agents, which may choose blockchains based on transaction speed, cost, and efficiency, rather than loyalty to a particular brand.

In Pal’s view, this could intensify competition among networks and lead to a situation where a small number of blockchains control most economic activity, while the rest lose a significant share of demand.

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