Research Team Reduces Quantum Computing Threat Benchmark for Bitcoin and Ethereum

A collaborative effort involving Google Quantum AI, the Ethereum Foundation, and Stanford University has significantly lowered the estimated number of physical qubits required to compromise the cryptographic security of Bitcoin and Ethereum. A newly published whitepaper reveals that fewer than 500,000 physical superconducting qubits would be necessary to break the elliptic curve cryptography that secures these cryptocurrencies, a drastic reduction from previous estimates of around 9 million qubits.

The research, dated March 30, 2026, focuses on the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, known as ECDLP-256, which is critical for maintaining the privacy of cryptocurrency keys. Utilizing Shor's algorithm, the study presents two circuit designs that operate with a maximum of 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits, achieving execution times between 9 to 23 minutes on standard superconducting architectures. This benchmark is less than half of Google's earlier reported requirement, although different accounting methods were used in the analysis.

The paper outlines two potential attack strategies: an 'on-spend' attack, which could intercept public keys during transaction broadcasts, and an 'at-rest' attack targeting wallets with already exposed public keys. Approximately 6.9 million Bitcoin and 20.5 million Ethereum are at risk due to these vulnerabilities, with significant assets controlled by administrative keys for smart contracts also exposed. Despite the alarming findings, experts advocate for a cautious transition to post-quantum cryptographic methods, noting that current quantum computers do not yet possess the capability to reach the required qubit threshold.

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Source: KLEA News