Bitcoin Held $80,000, Ethereum Extended Its Decline: a Trader Assessed Potential Market Scenarios

• Bitcoin held support at $80,000 after liquidity was swept below the local lows.
• Ethereum continues its downward move, while the lower liquidity pools remain untouched.
• The DXY printed a false breakout at 102.945 and dropped back below resistance.
• PMI, jobless claims, and geopolitics will be the key triggers of the week.

Last week brought no relief to the market. Instead of a directional trend, we saw a classic structural uncertainty setup. Bitcoin failed to break into the upper liquidity pools, while Ethereum methodically moved lower without completing its distribution.

Both assets continue to trade within wide ranges as they await a trigger for a breakout.

Let’s break down the current structure, local levels, and the priority scenarios for the next few days.

Bitcoin — Defending $80,000 Support and Trading the Middle of the Range

Last week almost fully played out according to our scenario B. The price advance was capped at $84,340.2. The imbalance below was tested, but the $85,200 block remained untouched.

The subsequent reversal led to a sweep of the key structural low at $80,095.9. The candle wick reached $79,732.3. However, the most important point is that the four-hour candles closed above the $80,000 level.

For the second week in a row, the market maker has defended this psychological level, leaving our final target at $79,500 unfilled.

Monday kicked off with a classic manipulation. During the Asian session, a sharp V-shaped reversal printed, with an impulse from $80,700 to $82,900.

As a result, a dense traded range formed below the chart at $81,000–$82,000, supported by a fresh four-hour fair value gap (4H FVG) at $81,200–$82,000.

Structure and metrics analysis

The global picture remains unchanged. We are still in a broad range between $80,000 and $88,000. Right now, the price has simply shifted into its inner band — $80,000 to $85,000.

Building long-term trend forecasts inside this range is pointless.

One of the main arguments for a long reversal is the stop sweep below the structural low at $80,095.9. However, a straight, no-pullback rally to new all-time highs from current levels looks far too obvious.

The crowd is expecting exactly that move, but the market rarely offers such opportunities without a final deep retest.

Quotes are hovering around $82,883. The RSI on the four-hour timeframe remains neutral at 58. Open interest is virtually unchanged at 95,060 contracts.

The Asian pump happened without aggressive leverage buildup. That points more to a local short squeeze and a return to the middle of the range than to the arrival of a large institutional buyer.

Working Scenarios for Bitcoin

Scenario A — PWH sweep and dump

A push through the monthly and quarterly open levels toward $85,000, with a test of the 4H FVG.

Formation of a false breakout — a double top — above last week’s high (PWH) at $84,340.2, followed by a sharp reversal.

Then — a no-pullback drop through the $81,000 to $82,000 support, a break below $80,095.9, and a move to the $78,400 target.

Scenario B — retest of the fresh FVG and continuation higher

A technical pullback into the 4H FVG zone at $81,200 to $82,000, a clear buyer reaction inside the imbalance, and a return above the daily open.

Then an impulse through the $83,600 resistance, taking out the PWH at $84,340.2 and filling the gap up to $85,200.

A mandatory condition is holding four-hour candle closes above $81,200.

Scenario C — rejection of the upside and cascading sell-off

The move up stalls in the $83,600–$84,000 area. A local high forms below PWH.

This is followed by a pullback into the $81,200–$82,000 FVG, a weak buyer response, and a loss of this zone on candle closes.

After that, a straight cascading flush through $80,000 toward $78,400 is possible.

Ethereum — Bearish Structure and Liquidity Building Below

Last week, Ethereum played out bearish scenario A. A weak technical bounce failed to follow through, after which the chart impulsively broke last week’s low (PWL) at $2,405.07 and last month’s low (PML) at $2,355.12, forming sideways chop around these levels.

Last week’s extreme was printed at $2,313.39. The $2,355 level was swept, but the daily imbalance at $2,200 remains untouched.

Unlike bitcoin, the setup for Ethereum is crystal clear. A pronounced bearish structure has been in place since October 7. Each local high is below the previous one, and PWH has dropped to $2,578.97.

Below, a dangerous liquidity shelf has formed in the $2,313–$2,355 zone. The chart has tested these levels several times and bounced, creating a dense cluster of stop orders.

The market rarely leaves such obvious pools unattended.

Link to bitcoin and metrics analysis

Ethereum currently has no standalone narrative and is fully dependent on bitcoin’s price action. In addition, the ETH/BTC chart still has not printed fresh local lows, which points to an unfinished phase of the asset’s relative weakness.

The current price is $2,433. The 4H RSI indicator is in neutral territory at 51.

Open interest fell over the week to 2.29 million. The bounce off local lows was driven by position closures rather than fresh buyer initiative.

Working Scenarios for Ethereum

Scenario A — false bounce and dump into the Daily FVG

A push into the $2,480–$2,500 resistance zone, forming a double top without confirmation.

Next — a loss of the 4H FVG support at $2,380–$2,400, a sweep of the pools at $2,355.12 and $2,313.39 with no buyer response, and a drop into the daily price imbalance (Daily FVG) toward $2,140.

Scenario B — break of the bearish structure

A pullback to $2,380–$2,400, holding the zone as support.

After sideways action above the opening levels, a confident move through $2,450 and the PWH at $2,578.97 follows.

This scenario is only possible if bitcoin breaks out strongly above $81,200.

Scenario C — collecting downside liquidity and a buyback

Forming a series of lower highs, followed by a loss of the $2,355 and $2,313 levels.

Next — an acceleration lower into the Daily FVG, with a wick through $2,200 and stop runs around $2,070.

After liquidity is collected, a buyback is possible via a double bottom and a return to $2,313.

This is the most organic and logical option for a trend reversal.

Trading Plan and Macroeconomic Backdrop

This week’s economic calendar is almost empty, but it’s still not a time to расслабляться.

There are only a few weeks left until the U.S. presidential election, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. In periods of an information vacuum and low liquidity, any major headline can trigger sharp volatility.

Within the $80,000–$85,000 range for bitcoin and $2,380–$2,480 for Ethereum, we do not open trades. We operate strictly off the range boundaries.

For bitcoin, the focus is on taking PWH $84,340.2 to look for a short, or a confirmed defense of the $81,200–$82,000 zone for a long.

For Ethereum, we consider long positions only after a deep sweep of the lower lows and a return of price back above them. We do not plan to catch a falling market without confirmation.

The remaining bitcoin short, with a stop at $85,560, remains open. The weekly high did not reach the protective order level, so the $79,500 target is still valid.

We trade confirmed signals at the range boundaries, avoiding trades in the middle.

Dollar Index — Deviation at 102.945, Return Below Resistance, and PMI Awaited

Last week put the finishing touches on the local rally in the U.S. dollar.

Against the backdrop of elevated inflation readings reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) attempted to extend a one-way impulse, setting a new prior week high (PWH) at 102.945.

However, buyers failed to continue the trend. The new high turned out to be a classic deviation, meaning a false breakout, under scenario C.

After liquidity was taken above the upper extremes, a sharp rejection followed, with an impulsive move back below 102.000 and a test of the mirrored PMH level at 101.612. That is where the prior week low (PWL) at 101.576 formed.

The current price is 101.904. The index is pinned directly below resistance at 101.977 and is trying to pick a direction after cooling off from overbought conditions.

Structure and Levels

After the false breakout, the bullish structure weakened, and the chart moved into a distribution phase.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is the horizontal level at 101,977. Above it, a fresh 4H FVG has formed in the 102,250-102,550 range. The main reference point remains the PWH deviation peak at 102,945.

On the downside, the first support is the PMH 101,612 and PWL 101,576 range. Below them sits a local 4H FVG zone at 101,200-101,400.

If these levels are lost, the path opens toward deep daily imbalances (Day FVG) at 100,700-100,900 and 100,400-100,560.

Background and indicators

The 4H RSI has dropped to 45.85 points, falling below the neutral midpoint and fully unwinding the weekly overbought condition.

A false breakout of the 102,945 top weakened buyers’ positions and gave the crypto market the breather it needed.

However, as long as DXY holds the 101,600 area, it is too early to talk about a full breakdown of the medium-term uptrend.

Three actionable scenarios for the week

Scenario A — pullback into the FVG and an acceleration of the correction

A push up to 101,977 with a move into the 4H FVG at 102,250-102,400, a lower high forming without confirmation, and a reversal under selling pressure.

Next comes a sharp drop through PWL 101,576, a breakdown of the 4H FVG at 101,200, and a slide into the Day FVG toward 100,700.

This is the priority bearish scenario, opening the way for the crypto market to test the upper boundaries of the current range.

Scenario B — defending supports and another push at the highs

A local reaction off 101,977, followed by another pullback to PWL support at 101,576 with a brief dip into the 4H FVG at 101,300.

Buyers defend the zone, a reversal structure forms, and an aggressive impulse breaks above 102,000, targeting a retest of 102,945 and a move toward 103,500.

This scenario implies renewed heavy pressure on risk assets.

Scenario C — stepwise swings and a prolonged unwind

A move through a cascade of sequential retests. A push up to 102,200, a pullback to 101,576, a weak attempt to hold above 101,977, and a drop into the 4H FVG at 101,200.

From there, a sharp technical bounce to 102,000 follows, without any follow-through.

The market continues to unwind within the 101,200–102,400 range, postponing a broader directional decision.

Fundamental Triggers for the Week

After the inflation block, the macro calendar takes a breather. The focus shifts to business activity indicators:

• Wednesday, October 21, 5:30 PM — US crude oil inventories
• Thursday, October 22, 3:30 PM — initial jobless claims
• Friday, October 23, 4:45 PM — October PMI readings for services and manufacturing. These are key indicators of US business resilience ahead of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Trading Plan

The dollar chart is pinned between mirror support at 101,576–101,612 and resistance at 101,977.

A false breakout at the highs shifts the local bias toward a continued correction under scenarios A and C.

Confirmation of seller strength would be a clean loss of 101,576 on four-hour candle closes. This would open the way for a deep fill of imbalances down to 100,700.

If buyers hold the 101,300–101,600 zone and push four-hour candle closes back above 102,200, scenario B becomes the base case.

Until Friday’s PMI release, trade strictly off the boundaries of the established range.

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