If SpaceX Stock Falls Below $100, Is It Time to Buy?

f SpaceX stock falls below $100, and it’s already come close to doing that once since the IPO, the real question isn’t whether it looks cheap, it’s whether the business is actually catching up to the price tag. SpaceX stock price is sitting at $151.21 right now, down from a 52-week high of $225.64 and still a decent bit above the 52-week low of $104.83, hit back in early August. So if SpaceX stock falls below $100 again, it wouldn’t exactly be uncharted territory, the SpaceX stock $100 level has already come up before, and traders are wondering whether a second trip there would be a gift this time, or just another warning sign.

At the time of writing, the SpaceX stock price has also settled into a tighter daily range, somewhere between $145.92 and $151.85, and volume has cooled off some too, with about 79.3 million shares changing hands against an average closer to 111.2 million. Market cap is still holding near $2.05 trillion, even with lockup expirations adding more shares to the float every few weeks, which matters a lot for anyone thinking about when to buy SpaceX stock in the first place.

SpaceX Stock Price, Forecast, And The Case To Buy Below $100

Where SpaceX Stock Price Stands Today

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 back in June, opened trading at $150 on day one, and within weeks climbed as high as $225.64 as retail investors piled in fast. That’s a lot of movement for such a short window, and it’s a big part of why so many people are now asking about a SpaceX stock forecast instead of just watching the ticker bounce around.

What The SpaceX Stock Forecast Says Right Now

The forecasts are all over the map. Morningstar has pegged fair value at just $62 a share, arguing the stock trades at close to three times what the underlying revenue can support right now, and that’s more or less the scenario where SpaceX stock falls below $100 would start to look justified instead of reckless. Raymond James sits at the opposite end with an $800 target, and firms like Evercore ISI and Pivotal Research have also kept their Buy ratings, with targets closer to $220. So the SpaceX stock forecast isn’t really a consensus at all, it’s more of a tug of war between people who trust the long game and people who think the valuation got away from everyone.

SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen touched on some of this at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference on Sept. 10, talking about the upcoming Starship Flight 14 mission and its production Starlink V3 satellites. He put it this way:

“It’s going to be a revenue-generating flight.”

It’s a small line, and an easy one to miss, but Flight 14 should be the first mission that actually brings in money instead of just proving the hardware works. Investors who think SpaceX stock falls below $100 is only noise might be underrating how much that single flight matters for the story.

Should You Buy SpaceX Stock Below $100?

Whether it makes sense to buy SpaceX stock below $100 really comes down to whether the revenue is catching up, and not whether the ticker just looks cheaper on a chart. Right now, SpaceX is chasing a $100 billion annual recurring revenue target by year-end, and a new AI hosting deal worth close to $13 billion a year should help push it there. If those numbers keep climbing while the stock stays flat, or drops a bit more, that combination has historically preceded a re-rating higher. If the numbers stall instead, then a $99 print is really just a cheaper way of owning the same problem all over again, and a trip back toward the SpaceX stock $100 mark would probably say more about lockup pressure than about the business itself.

This isn’t the first time the SpaceX stock $100 threshold has come up either, the 52-week low already dipped under it back in August. If SpaceX stock falls below $100 once more, and it’s genuinely happened before, so this isn’t some wild hypothetical, it would likely reflect share supply more than sentiment. Investors who decide to buy SpaceX stock at that point are, in a way, betting that Flight 14 and the AI buildout both land close to schedule.

For now, a SpaceX stock price under $100 would mostly reflect a supply story, not a demand one. And until Starship’s revenue flights and the AI deals actually prove out, the SpaceX stock forecast is going to stay a genuine coin flip between Morningstar’s skeptics and Wall Street’s bulls. If SpaceX stock falls below $100 again before any of that plays out, it might just mean the easy money from the IPO pop is officially gone.