Next Week's Macro Outlook: Gold "Spinning in Place" with Direction Still Unclear? CPI Tests Fed's Pause Expectations

PANews, October 10 - Over the past week, the U.S. and Iran remained in a standoff, but Trump explicitly ruled out the possibility of military action before the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the Fed meeting minutes and multiple officials sent a consistent signal: although inflation remains elevated and there may be one more rate hike this year, October may not see immediate action. Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time):

Monday (TBD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meetings will be held in Bangkok, through the 18th;

Tuesday, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver a speech;

Tuesday 15:45, Fed Governor Waller will speak at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum held in India;

Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending September 26;

Wednesday 4:00, 2028 FOMC voting member and Boston Fed President Collins will deliver a speech;

Wednesday 17:40, Fed Governor Bowman will deliver a speech;

Wednesday 20:30, U.S. September CPI and core CPI;

Thursday 2:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions;

Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, U.S. September retail sales month-over-month, U.S. September PPI and core PPI, U.S. October New York Fed manufacturing index, and U.S. October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index;

Friday 4:30, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver a speech;

Friday 11:30, Fed Chair Warsh will attend the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok and hold a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva;

Friday 0:00, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9.

U.S. September CPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday, and investors will use it to gauge the likely timing of the Fed's next rate hike. Although gold has withstood multiple bearish factors, downside risks remain, and the inflation data due next week is particularly critical. After recent weak U.S. employment data and comments from multiple Fed policymakers that there is still time to observe before hiking again, LSEG data shows the market currently prices only a 19% probability of a rate hike on October 28, whereas this probability had previously been as high as 70%. However, the market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in December.